10 September 2010

We Still Lack Real Numbers for the Stadium Game Plan

About 30 acres of land just south of Dewdney Avenue in Regina.

Regina Saskatchewan - Now that Saskatchewan students have hauled themselves back to school, perhaps we need to seriously upgrade our math skills as they apply to the proposed domed stadium in Regina.
 
Admittedly, this is like any other equation. You can make it work, providing the right numbers are plugged in. The problem, however, is we still don't have those right numbers yet. We can't be confident the $431-million construction cost is the solid, bottom-line figure, we don't know the fraction each partner is expected to pay, and we really don't know if this stadium will generate the revenue to justify both the capital and operational costs of running this facility into the future.
 
And were this math class not already difficult enough, it now appears we need to calculate a bit of political science into the equation:  Thirteen Conservative MPs out of 14 federal Saskatchewan seats, multiplied by potential political gain for Prime Minister Stephen Harper of one seat, equals an $80 to $100-million maximum contribution towards a $431-million stadium. However, a mere 10 or so Quebec Conservative MPs wearing old Quebec Nordiques sweaters, multiplied by 65 more potential Quebec seats for Harper's perennial minority government, equals $180-$200 million in potential federal money for a new $400-million hockey arena to attract an NHL franchise to Quebec City. (Gosh, could it be that Conservative MPs are more valuable when you don't elect them?)
 
For the moment, though, let's stick to good, old-fashioned Prairie math that is almost as difficult. The problem is that the cold, hard, calculations seem distracted by two of the province's most alluring sentiments, the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the longing to have a monumental structure here that tells the rest of the country and the world that this is a place of significance, with amenities as good as anywhere else.
 
Unfortunately, the mere building of such an iconic structure doesn't necessarily do that, so work the equation backwards by looking at the still-unanswered question of whether the facility can attract enough events to justify its existence.
 
If taxpayers are going to sink the lion's share of $431 million into the facility, they need to be guaranteed something more than 10 Rider home games, a once-a-year major concert, and a series of less profitable events. We need to stop silly comparisons to North Dakota's Fargodome, which pads its calendar of events with state wrestling championships, religious conventions, and low-profit events. As Liberal MP Ralph Goodale politely pointed out on Wednesday, the public needs more information on the operational side.
 
Next, we need to firm up that $431-million bottom-line figure. In the wake of Ken Cheveldayoff's announcement of the province securing 32 acres of land from CP Rail (again, full costs were undisclosed), the NDP raised the concern about added environmental clean-up costs.
 
There are likely a dozen similar questions about that $431-million cost of building an entire new domed stadium for roughly the same costs as the structural repair and roof-replacement of the much-larger B.C. Place. What about potential cost overruns? What other additional costs need to be considered?
 
But for the sake of advancing this discussion, let's say the bottom line is $431 million and that it can be justified economically. Who, then, pays how much?
 
After this week we now know the five partners (the City of Regina, provincial government, the feds, the private sector and the Riders will not be contributing an equal 20 percent share ($86.2 million). But how unequal?
 
Say the Riders can only afford $5 million or $6 million and the remaining four partners have to cover the additional $80 million of that one-fifth share. Is each willing to put up $100-million plus? What is the incentive for private-sector partners to be tossing in that much? (If we need to stoke private sector interests with corporate tax giveaways, shouldn't that be factored in?) Can the City of Regina afford $100-million plus?
 
And what of the federal government, which, at absolute best, sees its contribution as no more than $80-$100-million?
 
Maybe the stadium numbers can be made to work. They could certainly work if the federal Conservatives are as generous towards Saskatchewan as they are towards Quebec City.
 
But right now, we don't know what the real numbers are.
 
Murray Mandryk.